It's possible that it will be either a Nigerian cardinal, Francis Arinze, or Claudio Hummes from Brazil. But the cardinals might choose to go with a stopgap: elderly, Italian, and safe. It would give them more time to think about the direction of the Church.

If nobody wins the pool, it will be a great shame because there will be no victory dance in the hallway, accompanied by the declaration of prophetic powers on the part of the winner and the shaming of the losers. At least, that's what I plan on doing.